Trading Around in the 1st round.

Everyone who has followed the Giants off-season at all knows that the Giants relaesed Plaxico Burress and that there is a gaping hole across from Domenique Hixon or Steve Smith for the number 1 WR on the team. 

Specuatlion is abound about the veteran WR the Giants can bring into their team. Will they go after Braylon Edwards? Anquan Boldin? Torry Holt? Marvin Harrison? Chad Johnson? Or some yet to be named suprise player, no one but Jerry Reese and his close-knit cirlce knows for sure.

(Although for my money I want Edwards above all the other options. Boldin is fine, but he’ll cost more (in draft picks and in actual costs) and he’s nearly three years older than Braylon Edwards and has had some injury issues, including concussions, so I’ll pass on Boldin).

 

Anyway, I’ve wondered what would it cost the Giants to move up in the draft to target a WR that they may really like, so I did some research and I’ll show you my findings.

Using a trade value chart (which you can find on many websites, but I”ll use the reliable profootballtalk.com): you can see that the Giants current 1st round draft pick is worth: 640 points.

Their first 2nd round draft pick is worth another 450 points. Their second, 2nd round pick is an additional 300 points. 

Their third round draft pick is worth another 136 points. You cannot trade compensatory picks, so that pick will not count.

 Their fourth round pick is worth 48, 5th picks are worth: 35 and 28.6 respectively.  Their 6th and 7th picks are worth: 15.8 and 3 points, respectively.

Their draft, based on the draft chart is worth 1,656 points total. 

Now this isn’t a be all end all chart, because for instance the number five overall pick, based on the chart is worth 1,700 points.

What would you rather have 10 draft picks, or the number five overall?  With that being said, it is a pretty good gage.

 

So if the Giants Really wanted to move up to number five they wouldn’t have to trade their entire draft (although maybe we should for Larry Fitzgerald?), but the Giants would probably have to trade their Number One pick from this year and next (which would be roughly 12-1400 points, depending on how teams forecast future Number one picks) their early second rounder and a third or fourth at least. Maybe a later pick like a fifth as well. Seems a bit rich for my blood.

It’s possible, but it’s unlikely. The Giants have said a few different times that they will select best player available (from what I’ve read around) which seems to fit the mold of what Reese likes to do (Reese also obviously likes to go defense early: (2 Defenseive players and One Offensive players in each of the last three drafts in the first threee rounds)

Now let’s do some hypothetical scenarios.
What if Michael Crabtree fell, due to some freakish happenings, out of the top 10?

What would the Giants have to give up to move up to the Bills spot at Number 11?

The Number 11 draft pick is worth 1200 points.

The Giants 1st rounder is worth 640 points.  The last pick in the 1st round is worth 590 points, ergo the Giants could give up this year’s first round draft pick and Next year’s 1st round draft pick to the Buffalo Bills to move up to number 11 and select Crabtree.

The Giants could also package more picks, but keep next year’s number one by giving up their first rounder from this year, their first 2nd rounder from this year and the fourth rounder this year. 

Is it worth it? 

I say, yes.  However, I would prefer giving up the 2 number ones because then it is like you’re really only giving up One first rounder (b/c of the negation of the swap of 1st round picks this year). But either scenario isn’t terribly costly for what could be the best player in this draft.

I think Crabtree is going to be awesome, and I could live with giving up this year’s number 1 draft pick (considering we still have 9 other picks) and next year’s #1 in order to get Crabtree who could be in the same league as Larry Fitzgerald in a few years. Crabtree catches everything, even in traffic. He is also quicker than Fitzgerald is, and seems like he has a good head on his shoulders.  He does not have Heyward Bay’s race track speed, but he doesn’t need it. I say, do it up Gmen. If Crabtree makes it out of the first 10, jump on it.

What if Jeremy Maclin falls to number 17 to the J-E-T-S?

The Number 17th overall pick is worth 950 points.  The Giants 1st rounder is worth 640 points.   The Giants late second round pick is worth 292 points.  640 +292 =932 points.  The Giants could also throw in their 6th round pick at 15.8 points to bring the total value up to 947.8 points or near equal value, if the Jets are real stickles the Giants could throw in their 7th as well to give the Jets 950.8 points back.

So All in all to move up to 17 to the J-E-T-S to select Jeremy Maclin the Giants would have to give up: their first round pick. Their late 2nd round pick and their round 6th and round 7th picks.

Is it worth it?

A 2nd rounder, a 6th rounder and a 7th rounder isn’t really all that expensive. The probablitity of a 6th or 7th rounder contributing regularly is not good (although Reese has been Excellent in this area with Ahamahd Bradshaw and Michael Johnson both coming in the 7th rounds and intriguing QB prospect Andre Woodson is a 6th round pick).

So, is it worth it to move up and get Maclin? I’m a little weary, but I would be okay if the Giants pulled the trigger. The One thing I KNOW Maclin can do is help out immediately in the return games, and in case we have to keep Hixon at full time WR that would help out a lot. Plus in this scenario the Giants can still get a player they like in the 2nd round and two more players in the third round. So I say if the Giants like Maclin, Pull the Trigger with the Jets at number 17.

 

What if the Giants think the Vikings will take Kenny Britt (my 2nd favorite behind Crabtree) at pick number 22?

Pick Number 22 is worth 780 points.  The Giants first rounder again is 640 points. The Giants could switch places in their first round, and give up their late second round pick in exhange for the Vikings #22 1st round pick as well as the Vikings third round pick and that would be considered equal value.

Is it worth it?

I say without question do the deal. I think the best WR in this class will be Crabtree, but I think Kenny Britt is Dwayne Bowe good, maybe better.

I would love to see Britt end up with the Giants this year.

 

Knowing that there is a good chance that the Ravens will select a WR with their 26th overall pick. What would it take to leap frog them to land at number 25 for a player like Britt or perhaps Hakeem Nicks?

The number 25 pick is worth 720 points. The Giants would give up their 1st rounder (640) and there is a few difference scenarios one is their 1st rounder and their 4th and 5th round picks.

Another intriguing scenario is the Giants give up both their 2nd round picks. In exchange for the Dolphins 1st round pick and the Dolphins 6th round pick. 

Is it worth it?

My favorite scenario yet.  If the Giants could make that move and make two selections in the first round as opposed to two selections in the second round why not do it?

That’d be awesome.  The Giatns could grab, at number 25, either Britt or Nicks, and then at number 29 they could luck out and get a player like Knoswhon Moreno, Brain Cushing or Clay Matthews. Safety Sean Smith, or maybe TE brandon Pettigrew or even an OL like Eben Britton or William Beatty.

 

To be redundant, this is the route I like the most. In this scenario the Giants get two first round picks they really like and dont’ miss out on much. They wind up with two picks in the first two rounds instead of three. The Dolphins wind up with three picks in the first two rounds instead of two.  Win-Win for both teams.

 

Trading with the Dolphins would allow the Giants to move ahead of both the Ravens, Colts, and Eagles who might all be looking at the WR position.  It would give the Giants the opportunity to add two key play makers that could be enough to put us over the top.

 

All in all, this draft should be fun. Jerry Reese is a brilliant football mind with few roster spots to fill and lots of barganing chips. I can’t imagine the Giants losing in this draft at all. 

 

Well I hope you enjoyed this post. Let me know what you think.

 

As always if you can take the time to comment I can take the time to get back at you.

 

Have a nice day, everyone.


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