Comments on: Do the Giants Already Have a Number One WR On Their Roster? http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/ The Definitive New York Giants Blog! Fri, 12 Mar 2010 20:30:37 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 By: Bartolis http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-6731 Bartolis Wed, 27 May 2009 19:17:29 +0000 http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/#comment-6731 BigBlueWreckingCrew Agreed. It would be exhaustive hence why I did not do it. Also to take into consideration is opposing talent's on defensive teams. Is it easier to play WR on the West Coast (in Arizona) then it is to come and play WR in the N.F.C. East Would these players succeed in another venue? Who knows? Surely not me. 3rdstonefromthesun- Nice to see you stop by, Judson. I agree with a lot of what you said. I hope you're right about the WR's, I'm not that worried about them anymore. I'm looking forward to Football-and to passing you this week in fantasy baseball. BigBlueWreckingCrew

Agreed. It would be exhaustive hence why I did not do it.

Also to take into consideration is opposing talent’s on defensive teams.

Is it easier to play WR on the West Coast (in Arizona) then it is to come and play WR in the N.F.C. East

Would these players succeed in another venue?

Who knows?

Surely not me.

3rdstonefromthesun-

Nice to see you stop by, Judson.

I agree with a lot of what you said.

I hope you’re right about the WR’s, I’m not that worried about them anymore.

I’m looking forward to Football-and to passing you this week in fantasy baseball.

]]> By: Bartolis http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-6730 Bartolis Wed, 27 May 2009 19:13:41 +0000 http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/#comment-6730 Natalie- You're a smart gal. Agreed to most of your points. It is an insuffecient sample size for sure. It should probably be over the last 10 years-which would give strength to numbers and a bigger sampling size. Draft positiong MIGHT matter, but perhaps it does not. There would have to be a seperate study to see if it does. Players who are drafted higher have more physical abilities, but persumably they are heading into worse situations with teams that underperform consistently. For exmpale Hakeem Nicks goes to a team with established QB, good line, better work ethic etc, etc etc. Who knows. Generally speaking a team drafting in the top 10 is there because they are routinely not succeeding in the N.F.L. whereas a team drafting lower should have higher quality componets. It's tough-Football is such a complicated game where so many factors are based on other factors that it's definitely tough to use statistics. I want you to know that I know there are definitely flaws in it, but I was trying to simplify it just to see at it's basic level what might happen, knowing that it would need much more statistical analysis than I was prepared to do. Thanks for the intelligent comment. Natalie-

You’re a smart gal.

Agreed to most of your points. It is an insuffecient sample size for sure. It should probably be over the last 10 years-which would give strength to numbers and a bigger sampling size.

Draft positiong MIGHT matter, but perhaps it does not. There would have to be a seperate study to see if it does. Players who are drafted higher have more physical abilities, but persumably they are heading into worse situations with teams that underperform consistently.

For exmpale Hakeem Nicks goes to a team with established QB, good line, better work ethic etc, etc etc. Who knows. Generally speaking a team drafting in the top 10 is there because they are routinely not succeeding in the N.F.L. whereas a team drafting lower should have higher quality componets.

It’s tough-Football is such a complicated game where so many factors are based on other factors that it’s definitely tough to use statistics.

I want you to know that I know there are definitely flaws in it, but I was trying to simplify it just to see at it’s basic level what might happen, knowing that it would need much more statistical analysis than I was prepared to do.

Thanks for the intelligent comment.

]]> By: bigbluewreckingcrew http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-6727 bigbluewreckingcrew Wed, 27 May 2009 18:29:36 +0000 http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/#comment-6727 Some good work in this article. I think the one thing lacking would be an analysis of the team each WR played for including the QB stats. That would be exhaustive but it would probably shed some light on why so many WRs have been disappointments. Some good work in this article. I think the one thing lacking would be an analysis of the team each WR played for including the QB stats. That would be exhaustive but it would probably shed some light on why so many WRs have been disappointments.

]]> By: Natalie http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-6726 Natalie Wed, 27 May 2009 18:12:51 +0000 http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/#comment-6726 Also, after accounting for differences in draft position or scouting ability, we probably lack a sample that is statistically significant. What kind of program they played at (Rameses Barden) would also make differences as well, as what kind of coach they played for or system they played in (Hakeem Nicks - Butch Davis) or what kind of team drafted them (I would bet it's easier to excel on a team with an established qb, ol, and rb's like the Giants). There is also always a risk that the context has changed, especially in a league that changes as often and quickly as the NFL. Also, after accounting for differences in draft position or scouting ability, we probably lack a sample that is statistically significant. What kind of program they played at (Rameses Barden) would also make differences as well, as what kind of coach they played for or system they played in (Hakeem Nicks – Butch Davis) or what kind of team drafted them (I would bet it’s easier to excel on a team with an established qb, ol, and rb’s like the Giants). There is also always a risk that the context has changed, especially in a league that changes as often and quickly as the NFL.

]]> By: Natalie http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-6725 Natalie Wed, 27 May 2009 18:06:08 +0000 http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/#comment-6725 A few thoughts. It is an interesting idea, but I think oversimplified based on some of what I learned in a statistics class. 1) We are projecting rates for receivers in the top 3 rounds regardless of where they are picked. So, in part, we are basing Travis Beckum's probability of success on the percentage of success for receivers drafted 3rd overall, like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, which is obviously irrational. 2) There is no distinction for scouting abilities. We are counting Jerry Reese and Matt Millen equal in their ability to select players, which is obviously absurd. 3) I see 2 issues related to time. a) Most football people seem to think that wide receivers take on average 3 years to develop, if I am not mistaken. So that means some receivers will take longer than 3 years and those guys labeled busts or serviceable could turn out to be more than that. b) What we are really interested in as Giants fans is their chances of success in the first year (or second or third year, depending). If Hakeem Nicks or Mario Manningham becomes a stud in their third year out of the draft the Giants will still lack a number 1 this year. It's an interesting thought, but I think it would probably take a high level of statistical expertise to draw really meaningful results. That said, I hope you are right about their receivers. A few thoughts. It is an interesting idea, but I think oversimplified based on some of what I learned in a statistics class.

1) We are projecting rates for receivers in the top 3 rounds regardless of where they are picked. So, in part, we are basing Travis Beckum’s probability of success on the percentage of success for receivers drafted 3rd overall, like Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, which is obviously irrational.

2) There is no distinction for scouting abilities. We are counting Jerry Reese and Matt Millen equal in their ability to select players, which is obviously absurd.

3) I see 2 issues related to time.

a) Most football people seem to think that wide receivers take on average 3 years to develop, if I am not mistaken. So that means some receivers will take longer than 3 years and those guys labeled busts or serviceable could turn out to be more than that.

b) What we are really interested in as Giants fans is their chances of success in the first year (or second or third year, depending). If Hakeem Nicks or Mario Manningham becomes a stud in their third year out of the draft the Giants will still lack a number 1 this year.

It’s an interesting thought, but I think it would probably take a high level of statistical expertise to draw really meaningful results. That said, I hope you are right about their receivers.

]]> By: 3rdStoneFromTheSun http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/comment-page-1/#comment-6719 3rdStoneFromTheSun Wed, 27 May 2009 16:37:57 +0000 http://www.giantsgab.com/2009/05/27/do-the-giants-already-have-a-number-one-wr-on-their-roster/#comment-6719 I think Barden, the only Jint pick I correctly predicted in my mock, will be fine...but maybe not this year? he may get the slow development treatment...spotted in the red zone most likely Beckum could make a big impact in the slot in 2 TE sets...he isn't physical..but good athleticism...and he might help Boss get open this is the year I expect Manningham to show if he is a #2 guy or just a roster player he can make the great catch, but was known to drop the e-z ones in college you know I like Nicks he finally put it all together last year at UNC dunno if he is a #1 in the classic sense, because he isn't real fast but the guy has glue on his fingers and is pretty tough...he's kinda like a bigger version of Ahmad Rashad, ect...that type I think he and Hixon start, with Smith as a solid #3 Unless Manningham is ready to push one guy down a notch I'm not too worried that none of the G-Men WR's are speed merchants that OL is excellent, so they can give Eli an extra second or so to wait for a guy to get open IF Moss helps - it would be big they need a guy who can stretch the seam to open up the underneath junk that is a big if I'm in agreement with you that dude's a bust this is said under the assumption all the guys stay healthy, which isn't likely in the NFL I think Barden, the only Jint pick I correctly predicted in my mock, will be fine…but maybe not this year?

he may get the slow development treatment…spotted in the red zone most likely

Beckum could make a big impact in the slot in 2 TE sets…he isn’t physical..but good athleticism…and he might help Boss get open

this is the year I expect Manningham to show if he is a #2 guy or just a roster player

he can make the great catch, but was known to drop the e-z ones in college

you know I like Nicks

he finally put it all together last year at UNC

dunno if he is a #1 in the classic sense, because he isn’t real fast

but the guy has glue on his fingers and is pretty tough…he’s kinda like a bigger version of Ahmad Rashad, ect…that type

I think he and Hixon start, with Smith as a solid #3

Unless Manningham is ready to push one guy down a notch

I’m not too worried that none of the G-Men WR’s are speed merchants

that OL is excellent, so they can give Eli an extra second or so to wait for a guy to get open

IF Moss helps – it would be big

they need a guy who can stretch the seam to open up the underneath junk

that is a big if

I’m in agreement with you that dude’s a bust

this is said under the assumption all the guys stay healthy, which isn’t likely in the NFL

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