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DProspect Profiles-OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma). And other Draft Stuff

I will get to the Trent Williams stuff in a minute, but first I wanted to just discuss some draft-related happening around the way.
Profootballtalk.com has published it’s first mock draft
And they had the Giants selecting Earl Thomas. They had Berry at #4 to the Redskins, Joe Haden #5 to the Cheifs, McClain #7 to the Browns (where I think he’ll end up), and Jared Odrick at #10 to the Broncos.
They also had Trent Williams (#8 Oakland), Bryan Baluaga (#14th) , and Anthony Davis  #13 to the 49ers) all gone by the Giants 15th pick. They had Nate Allen ( a guy who is gaining momentum to the Colts at #31)
Mel. Kiper has posted his final pre-combine mock draft. He had Sergio Kindle to the Giants. This is something I’ve been seeing more and more of…if you haven’t read his profile yet read it. It might be happening. He had McClain going to the Dolphins at 12. , Anthony Davis to the Cheifs at 5 (I told you at 15 he’d be great value and is one of my top options), and Earl Thomas OUT of the First Round. If this happens the Giants should be running up to the podium to make a trade with the Rams for their 2nd round pick to grab Earl Thomas.
McShay’s final Combine Mock is also out.
He had Jason Pierre Paul going #3 overall (Profile coming soon), Anthony Davis #4 overall, Baulga, Berry, Williams 6-8th overall, Rolando MCClain 12th to the Dolphins (seeing a pattern), Joe Haden #13th overall, and the Giants selecting DT Brian Price .
Earl Thomas 20th to the Texans (See that A LOT on the internet), Bruce Campbell 27th, Jared Odrick #30th overall, and Nate Allen #27th overall.
That’s unfortuante Nate Allen was a guy I was hoping the Giants could steal in Round 2, but he’s moving on up.
Well that’s all I have for now before the combine. I want to see how some people do at the combine before I Get the rest of these reports out.
Enjoy let me know what you thinking.
Picture From SI.com

Picture From SI.com

ProDraft Party Video

Trent Williams

Measurables

6’5. 315 pounds. Born July 19th, 1988.

Scouting Reports

K.C. Joyner’s Draft Lab

In reviewing Oklahoma Sooners offensive tackle Trent Williams, I can’t help but think of Gosder Cherilus. Cherilus is the progenitor of this series; after seeing his subpar collegiate metrics accurately translate into subpar professional metrics, I decided to start reviewing more NFL draft prospects this way.

The central premise of the Draft Lab series is that the top-level pro prospects should be able to post metrics against collegiate competition that are above average or better than high-end NFL players at the same position. In the five-game series I broke down on Williams (at Miami, versus Texas, at Kansas, versus Kansas State, at Nebraska), he gave up four splash plays. There were two sack plays and one offensive holding play, so three of the four splash plays were direct impacts and not simply judgement calls.

As bad as four splash plays in five games is, Williams was lucky that total wasn’t higher. He was beaten quite badly on an inside spin move in the Nebraska game that was very nearly a hurry or sack, but a quick reaction by OU quarterback Landry Jones saved Williams from splash play No. 5.

That wasn’t the only time Williams struggled with an inside pass-rush move. He was pushed completely off his feet with an inside shoulder club move in both the Kansas State and Nebraska games. Miami also ran 10 inside moves against Williams, which is such a high total that one has to figure the Hurricanes saw a similar inside pass-blocking weakness.

Those woes would be enough on their own to consider Williams overhyped, but his run blocking is actually worse than his pass blocking. Williams blocked at the point of attack on a running play 41 times and won the battle 33 times. That equates to an 80.5 percent POA win rate. To put that in perspective, an 80.5 percent POA rate in 2008 would have ranked 28th among NFL left tackles.

Williams’ POA win rates are worse than that if the 10 plays on which he had double-team blocking help are removed. He had zero POA losses on those plays, so his POA win rate on one-on-one blocks was 74.2 percent.

Williams also has issues with penalties. There was the aforementioned offensive holding penalty, two false starts, a personal foul/leg whip penalty and a personal foul/late hit.

The late hit might show an additional weakness. It came not long after Nebraska defensive lineman Barry Turner beat Williams on a POA run block. Williams beat Turner on a run block a few plays later and wouldn’t stop blocking him until well after the play was over. His extra pushing eventually led to the penalty, and it looked to my scouting eye like he was mad about having been beaten and was trying to send a message to Turner.

That could be a strength in that if a coach can find a way to tap into it, it might be used to his team’s advantage. The problem is, though, NFL defenders know when someone reacts poorly to having his buttons pushed, and if they sense that weakness in Williams, he’ll have someone trying to goad him in every game he plays.

The Football Scientist lab result: Had I not known before watching video of Williams that he was considered a first-round prospect in many circles, it wouldn’t have occurred to me to even consider ranking him that high. He might go in the first round because he is a left tackle, but the metrics say he will be a mediocre pro player, and that stamps him with the TFS overhyped label.

Williams is much like Cherilus in that his collegiate metrics leave a lot to be desired.

His first and most important metric weakness is pass blocking. Left tackles get monster contracts and highly publicized motion pictures (“The Blind Side,” about Michael Oher, opens Friday) because of their ability to keep pass-rushers from impacting the game via splash plays (e.g., sacks, offensive holding penalties, tipped passes, etc.).

A review I did in Scientific Football 2009 shows the best professional pass-blockers allow four or fewer splash plays in a season. It tiers down from there, with four to six being above average, six to 10 being below average and more than 10 ranking at or near the bottom of the league.

ESPN’s Scouts Inc.

Production 2 2006: (7/7) Took over starting ROT job for injured Brandon Braxton versus Missouri, which was his first of seven consecutive starts to begin the season. 2007: (14/6) Played in all 14 games, including six starts at right tackle 2008: (14/14) Started all
Height-Weight-Speed 3 Prototypical height. Lacks ideal bulk but certainly adequate in that department and has room to add some bulk to frame.
Durability 2 No glaring injuries. Has played in all 28 games the past two seasons (2007-08), including 20 starts.
Intangibles 2 Has shown some versatility and willingness to put team ahead of self. No off the field issues to our knowledge. Continues to improve with more experience.
Offensive Tackle specific Traits
Awareness 2 His footwork needs some polishing but his overall instincts and awareness are above average. Has a feel for defenders trying to set him up. Does a great job of getting helping inside initially and then picking up the oncoming wide defender in slide prot
Toughness 1 One of the toughest offensive linemen we evaluated in this year’s class. Lacks elite power but is strong and tough enough to matchup effectively in the phone booth with any defender. Clearly plays with a mean streak. Fights to finish and wants to finis
Pass Protection 2 Not an elite athlete but shows better-than-average feet, balance and lateral agility. Gets set quickly in pass pro. Shows the ability to mirror and slide versus quicker DEs. Is aggressive in short set. A bit inconsistent with his footwork but clearly
Run Blocking 1 Angles are a bit inconsistent. Adequate-to-good initial quickness. Shows the foot quickness to establish great positioning as a run blocker as long as his first step and angle are proper. Initial pop is good but not elite. He’s strong enough to drive

Draft Board Insider

Scouting Report:  This time last year, and even up until August of this year, Williams was the best tackle in the country.  Then he put his hand on the ground, and everything went wrong from that point forward.  Williams has a huge body, with long arms, and a powerful build.  The problem is, his game is more finesse than power.  He’s got great feet for a man his size, and does an excellent job moving laterally and getting his arms out and keeping defenders off of him.  But he doesn’t work as physical as he should in the run game, and just doesn’t play with the energy level we saw last year.  He’s got good posture keeps his pads low, and is very good at play recognition.  He does a fin job in identifying and picking up the blitz and works pretty well in space, and gets to the second level.  But compared to last year, Williams overall level of play is down.  His run blocking has gotten much worse, and he has lost some of his discipline, often taking plays off, especially in pass protection, allowing rushers to get up into his pads and overpower him.

Draft Status:At this point, I’m not certain Williams is a first round pick. Last year, Phil Loadholt was the Sooner tackle who fell, but he ended up in Minnesota, moved back to the right side, and is having a phenomenal year.  The same could be said for Williams.  His junior year doesn’t just go away because his senior year has been down.  He’s been surrounded by backups.  All in all, I think some team will roll the dice on him late in the first round.

Final Analysis:  In the final analysis, I think Williams is an NFL right tackle.  His game fell off the cliff when he was moved to the left, and honestly he probably won’t ever play on the left in the NFL.  His game came to him much more naturally on the right side, and I will be curious to see if he is put back on the right, if he can once again play at the elite level he did as a Junior.  He has all the tools, and considering what we’ve seen of him, the upside is there.

Reminds me of: David Stewart, OT Tennessee Titans-Stewart is one of the better RT’s in the NFL and much of that comes from his ability to pass protect.  Williams strength is pass protection, but we’ve seen he can be a great run blocker at times.  If he can elevate his run blocking to a level of Stewart’s he’ll be in great shape in the NFL.

Walterfootball.com

Strengths:

  • Solid height and bulk
  • Long arms
  • Very athletic
  • Gets set quickly
  • Nice lateral movement
  • Consistent footwork and mirrors well
  • Patient; gets comfortable in stance
  • Gets to second level
  • Displays short range explosion
  • Light on his feet
  • Great balance
  • Instinctive; counters moves well
  • Nice stunt/blitz awareness
  • Effective hand punch
  • Shows ability to handle elite speed off edge
  • Weaknesses:

  • Lacks a nasty demeanor
  • Not very physical in run game
  • Sometimes lets rushers into body
  • Occasionally has bad posture
  • Must sustain blocks at higher level
  • Lapses in concentration
  • Looks a little stiff with knee bendS
  • ummary: Trent Williams is a very solid left tackle prospect, but he has lots of room to improve in the running game and I don’t think he will ever be considered an elite pass protector in the NFL. Williams is making the move from right to left tackle in 2009, and NFL scouts will be monitoring his progress closely. The official Oklahoma Web site claims he runs the 40-yard dash in 4.82 seconds… we’ll see about that at the Combine.Player Comparison: Donald Penn. Penn is an athletic pass protector, but lacks a nasty demeanor against the run.
  • Big Board Rankings

    ESPN’s Scouts Inc 14th

    Draft Board Insider 27th

    Drafttek.com 14th

    Where the Mocks Have him Falling

    Profootballtalk 8th Raiders

    Todd McShay 8th to the Raiders

    CBS Draft Scout 13th to the Raiders

    Kiper 16th to the 49ers

    Walterfootball.com to the 49ers

    Draftboardinsider.com 24th to the Eagles

    Bartolis Summary and Final Verdict

    I’ve made it known that I am in favor of the Giants drafting an OT with the 15th overall pick as long as it provides good value. Trent Williams is an Offensive linemen who could very well be available when the Giants select at 15th.

    Williams is an athletic tackle prospect with a lot of upside because of his superior athleticsm.

    Bartolis Final Verdict

    However, Williams lacks bulk and with the Giants already having William Beatty, another player who is athletically built, but without a huge body (IE may be adequate in run blocking but can be an elite pass blocker) I’m not sure he fits with the Giants.

    Williams will receive very high grades from some, and (realatively) low grades from others. He scares me a bit, and I think he is behind Okung, Davis, Baluga and Campbell at this point (to me). I think Williams has a high upside, and I think it is possible that the Giants DO draft him because he as a productive player at a big time program at a position of need for the Giants, I would not.

    But that’s not to say he won’t get drafted high. Look at the mocks that have actual connections to the league, McShay, Profootball talk have him going 8th to the Raiders. Kiper has him in the top 20.

    If the Giants draft him you can’t complain too much…heading into the season he was the #1 or #2 OT so if the Giants draft him they must see something good on tape…and they’ve watched much more of it than I have.

    But like I said, he’s not one of my favorite players… I’ve been right a lot of times on my gut feeling about players (I really liked Mario Williams), but I’ve been wrong as well at times like everyone has (I was dead wrong about Matt Leinart so far as far as players I really liked). I think Williams is one of these cases where feelings will be across the board.

    I saw somewhere that people think Williams might run a very fast 40 at the combine which might boost his stock as well.

    In other words I continue to be in favor of drafting an OL at 15th overall…just not this one.

    Previous Profiles

    Derrick Morgan

    OL Mike Iupati

    S Chad Jones

    OLB/DE Sergio Kindle

    ILB Sean Lee

    S Eric Berry

    OT Bruce Campbell

    ILB Daryl Washington

    DT/NT Dan Williams (Updated with K.C. Joyner’s Draft Lab 2/7)

    CB Kyle Wilson

    DT Jared Odrick

    DE Carlos Dunlap

    ILB Micah Johnson

    DT Arthur Jones

    OT Bryan Baluga

    OT Anthony Davis (UPDATED 2/5/10)

    DT Brian Price

    ILB Brandon Spikes

    S Earl Thomas

    ILB Rolando McClain

    RB C.J. Spiller

    S Taylor Mays


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    9 Responses to “DProspect Profiles-OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma). And other Draft Stuff”

    1. Jason C. says:

      Earl Thomas is more of a round 2 prospect to me, also he is the exact height and weight as Jairus Byrd, not sure if that was pointed out before or not, but there’s one thing there (similar players as far as I read as well). Kindle is pretty much Sintim as far as I’m concerned, and if we’re going to draft anyone in the first round on defense, with the way they played this year he damn well better be ready to start week 1. Also, who gives a crap about an O-Lineman’s 40 time? If that really sends him shooting up the draftboard so be it, anyone who drafts O-Linemen based on their 40 time deserves to overpay for it.

      • Jason C

        Funny you bring that up. That’s exactly how Al Davis drafts.

        Its NOT a coincidence that profootballtalk, and McShay have him going to the Raiders at 8th (Much like Darrius Heyward Bey)

        I disagree about Earl Thomas.

        He’s super talented and young.

        He is similar to Jarius Byrd….the same Jaris Byrd who had 9 INT in essentially 11 games as a safety and in only 14 games played.

        You tell me what team wouldn’t take more than an INT in every other game played.

        Let’s hope a team doesn’t make that same mistake they had last year with Bryd.

        Also remember that Byrd played Cornerback in College so he was transitining positions so there was worry about that.

        Earl Thomas is more experienced at safety.

        Just my own personal take.

        • Jason C. says:

          I was slowly slipping over to the dark side and giving in to the idea that we aren’t going to get Eric Berry, then I see him projected to go 13 to the 49ers in a few mocks, and there’s always a few guys that jump into the top 10 out of nowhere, so I’m still holding out hope. I didn’t mean Thomas wasn’t worth drafting in the first round, he is, I just feel for the Giants there should be someone they rank higher on the board at 15.

    2. Jeremy says:

      He seems like a poor mans Bruce Cambell to me. The fifth or sixth best lineman in the draft shouldn’t be drafted with the 15th pick. If he’s the best one there at the time that means another position like DT should have great value.

    3. […] more: DProspect Profiles-OT Trent Williams (Oklahoma). And other Draft … Share and […]

    4. Jason C. That’s fair.

      I like him a lot and I think he represents top 15 value to me personally (especially on the Giants board which won’t include any Quarterbacks)

      Instead of Eric Berry the guy I would hold out hope for is CB Joe Haden.

      He’s getting some Darrel Revis comparisons

      I think the Giants could draft Revis and make a committment to keeping Ross at Safety or moving TT there for good, which I would also be O.K. with it.

      If Berry slips past 10 I can see the Giants trading up a few spots for him.

      • Jeremy says:

        1st round picks have to start eventually to justify the pick. So If Joe Haden becomes a shutdown corner that would be a good pick because Aron Ross is an excellent nickel corner but was also drafted in the first round a steep price for a nickel corner he could be a good safety in the mold of an antrel rolle. I could live with spending a 1st round pick on him as long as he’s starting somewhere. That means no safety in the second, a line backer then. I would be happy with that draft but only if we were moving someone to safety. Thoughts anyone?

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