• Tweet

• Tweet

Sidney Rice. Robert Meachem. Mike Sims-Walker. Steve Smith (Giants).

These were 2009′s “breakout third-year receivers” — a popular term in fantasy circles that is actually more fable than fact, as explained more than sufficiently in this blog post.

Smith was the best of them all. Leading the NFC in receptions and finishing as the No. 11 fantasy wideout (No. 8 in PPR), Smith set career highs in catches, yards, touchdowns, and yards-per-catch average. Outrageously consistent, Smith caught at least four passes in 15-of-16 games and six or more in 11. He ranked fourth in the NFL in targets, hauling in 71 percent of them.

Remember the “concern” about New York’s “unproven” receiver corps entering last season? Smith is the primary reason the group is now considered among the league’s most promising.

Meanwhile, Giants first-round pick Hakeem Nicks labored through the early part of his first year. An injured hamstring, contributing to Nicks’ fluky offseason weight gain, was aggravated in training camp. Recovered for the second exhibition game, Nicks exploded against the Jets for six catches, 144 yards, and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, Nicks suffered a mid-foot sprain in the season opener when he was just on the verge of supplanting then-starter Domenik Hixon.

Nicks returned with a bang. In Weeks 4-7, he scored a TD in four straight contests despite playing 43-or-less percent of the offensive snaps in all but one — a five-catch, 114-yard, one-score eruption against New Orleans’ stout secondary. Though Nicks was ultimately inconsistent because of his low target and snap totals, the former North Carolina Tar Heel’s dominant talent again flashed in a four-catch, 110-yard, one-touchdown effort against Philadelphia in Week 13.

Nicks finished as the No. 29 fantasy receiver.

He didn’t even see half as many targets as Smith during the 2009 season, and wound up with about three games worth of snaps fewer than Manningham. Ridiculously gifted, Nicks still found a way to pace the Giants in total yards after the catch and generate 13 plays of 20-plus yards. (Smith and Manningham each had 15 with loads more opportunities). Nicks’ “drop rate” (drops divided by catches) was also easily the best on the team. He is New York’s most physical receiver, the best at breaking tackles, and has the best hands and size.

The explanation for Nicks’ conservative usage when he was arguably the best receiver on the team could involve multiple factors:

1. Nicks got off to a slow start. The team might’ve worried he’d aggravate an injury if pressed into a full-time role rather than the rotation with Manningham.

2. Nicks was a rookie. Coaching staffs — especially old ones like Tom Coughlin’s — often defer to veterans when divvying up playing time.

3. Nicks spent virtually all of his time out wide. The missed practice time appeared to slow his development in terms of learning all three receiver positions.

Of course, these things tend to balance out in time. Playcaller Kevin Gilbride hit the offseason film room and couldn’t help but love what he saw from Nicks. Manningham isn’t going away, but with the worst hands on the team (10 drops in ’09) and no physicality (Nicks, by the way, is New York’s top blocking wideout), Mario is better cutout as a situational deep threat off the bench. Nicks was cleared from toe surgery in June and will experience his first full complement of two-a-days in camp.

He shouldn’t have trouble winning the starting job.

Overtaking Smith as Eli Manning‘s preferred target will be harder for Nicks, but it’s worth noting that throughout Gilbride’s coaching career his offensive philosophy has involved running to set up the deep ball. He couldn’t pound the rock as much with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw playing hurt all last season. The tailbacks are healthy this year, and the defense will be better.

Gilbride’s history supports a downfield-oriented passing game. The numbers and game tape both say Nicks is a significantly better vertical threat than Smith.

Let’s conservatively project that Nicks and Manningham essentially swap roles in the offense. Mario saw roughly 700 snaps and 100 targets last year. If Nicks gets similar totals and doesn’t improve on his per-play rookie-year production, his numbers will proportionally look like this:

67 catches
1,126 yards
9 touchdowns

While the numbers would’ve made Nicks a top-20 receiver per last year’s fantasy point rankings, they’re not quite enough to vault him past Smith’s No. 11 finish. And that’s where the upside factor comes in. Since NFL players traditionally make their biggest leaps between years one and two, Nicks’ ceiling is quite a bit higher. As the ideal system fit in Gilbride’s offense, Nicks undoubtedly offers the potential to emerge as New York’s top receiver in 2010. Even Smith is on record as saying he believes Nicks will be the Giants’ breakout player.

And now, some fantasy analysis:

According to the latest Average Draft Position data, Smith is commonly being selected between the 38th and 39th overall picks, and as the WR14. Our projections say he’ll be just the 49th-best fantasy player and the WR18, behind receivers he’s routinely being drafted before like Michael Crabtree, Chad Ochocinco, the Panthers’ Steve Smith, and Mike Sims-Walker.

The Giants’ Steve Smith is going to be a solid player for a long time, but this just isn’t great value. Particularly in non-PPR formats, we’d much prefer the more talented Nicks at his current late fifth-round ADP than Smith in round three.

[via]